FBMKLCI- Breaking the 2017 level in 2017??!! Bogus or Bagus?

FBMKLCI to create all time highs in 2017??!!
Bogus or Bagus?

(chart courtesy of UOB KayHian Techanalyzer)

FBMKLCI is currently extending the Intermediate wave (5) of Primary wave ((3)) of Cycle wave V as shown in diagram above (elliottwave INTERNATIONAL, 2017), {wave count based on "2017 STATE of the GLOBAL MARKETS" report by elliottwave INTERNATIONAL}.

Market outlook: FBMKLCI embarked the Cycle Wave V when it bottomed in 2001, right after the year 2000 crash. Since then FBMKLCI has been challenging higher levels, with the 2008 crisis concluding the Primary wave ((2)) correction of Cycle Wave V.
As the motive phase always occur in a five-wave manner, FBMKLCI is expected to stage an powerful upleg [as the Intermediate wave (5)],  to conclude the five-wave uptrend that began since 2009.

(chart courtesy of UOB KayHian Techanalyzer)

A closer look at the chart as shown in diagram above, reveals that FBMKLCI indeed had bottomed in Aug 2015 following an A-B-C correction from the Jul 2014 peak. Since Aug 2015, FBMKLCI has been trapped in a consolidation with well defined upper boundary at 1730, and lower boundary near 1600 level.
Summing up, FBMKLCI will break both 1730 and 1750 levels to confirm its intention to skyrocket in 2017. 

A breakout from 1730 level will mark the completion of the 1600-1730 box consolidation of FBMKLCI. A further breakout of 1750 level (weekly 200SMA) will levitate FBMKLCI into the bullish territory.(chart courtesy of UOB KayHian Techanalyzer)


The bullish view of FBMKLCI in 2017 is further supported by the highlights in the chart above. FBMKLCI is currently undergoing a Bollinger Bands squeeze in the monthly chart (circled in the chart above). This implied that the volatility of FBMKLCI has been decreasing in the last 20 months, as the box consolidation (which began in Oct 2015) unfolds.
 The last Bollinger squeeze of FBMKLCI occurred in Q2 and Q3 of 2006 (circled in chart above), which was ensued by a 55%  rally in FBMKLCI.
Almost similar to the last bollinger squeeze, the current bollinger squeeze also unfolds with bullish MACD crossover.
A back-test of bullish MACD crossover, highlighted by the square boxes in diagram above, suggests that bullish rally shall ensue with a bullish MACD crossover in the monthly chart.

"FBMKLCI to at least break the 2017 level in 2017"
Is it Bogus, or is it really Bagus? 

It's up to my fellow readers to decide.
Do frequent this blog to receive latest updates on market and individual stock outlooks.

CIMB- More upside in 2017

CIMB (1023) More upside awaiting in 2017

(chart courtesy of UOB KayHian Techanalyzer)

CIMB is in the midst of testing the upper trendline of leading diagonal as shown in the chart above.

Completion of leading diagonal will see CIMB to stage a correction (dip) before resuming the larger Cycle wave of uptrend.

Brief description of the price structure history for CIMB:

CIMB started the ((A))-((B))-((C)) expanded flat in Jan 2011, and the primary wave ((C)) terminated in vicinity of monthly 200SMA in Jan 2016. Since then CIMB has been challenging higher price level in a leading diagonal fashion. CIMB recently has broken the long term downward trendline in Feb 2017, indicating the CIMB's intention to soar higher in 2017.

(chart courtesy of UOB KayHian Techanalyzer)

A closer view on the daily chart reveals that break out of the downward trendline happened with a powerful run away gap, as shown in figure above.

The figure above also further highlight the inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern unveiled by CIMB.

Prognosis for price movement of CIMB:

As leading diagonal always occur in a five-wave manner, CIMB is expected to extend another up-leg to challenge the upper trendline of leading diagonal shown in the second diagram. After that, CIMB is expected to dip in price before continuing the larger wave degree (Cycle wave) of uptrend.

Armada- sinking vessels? Rocketing higher, of course!

Armada (5210) Rocket fuel is loading

(chart courtesy of UOB KayHian Techanalyzer)

Armada is in the midst of challenging the upper trendline of ending diagonal, as shown in diagram above. 

Successful breakout of the upper trendline will complete the five-wave diagonal and mark the beginning of Cycle wave B

Brief description of the price structure history for Armada:

Armada began the five-wave correction in April 2012, and briefly undercut the lower trendline of ending diagonal in Nov and Dec 2016. The stopping volume of intermediate wave (5) was significantly lower than intermediate wave (3) in the ending diagonal (shown in diagram above), suggesting the last wave of selling was exhaustive.

Prognosis for price movement of Armada:

Since correction waves of larger wave degree always occur in three-wave manner, a bear rally Cycle  wave B is expected for Armada in 2017 in a three-wave fashion. 

A resounding breakout of price level 0.70 will confirm the Armada's intention to jump start Cycle wave B. Breaking the 0.70 level will also levitate Armada into a bullish territory, because the current daily 200SMA is around 0.69. Be prepared as Armada will unleash an armada of rocket to soar higher in price.

FGV - Another up leg to go!!??

FGV (5222) Another up leg to go!!??
(chart courtesy of UOB KayHian Techanalyzer)

FGV is currently bouncing off the lower trendline of expanding wedge (triangle) as shown in diagram above.
Mid-term view (within a year): FGV is poised to extend another up leg and challenge the upper trendline as the primary wave ((E)), thus completing the final wave of cycle wave B in this bear rally.
Brief description of the price structure history for FGV:
FGV started it's downhill journey since it's listing in Jul 2012 in a five wave fashion, and hit the bottom in Aug 2015.

Since then, FGV was forming an expanding wedge, in which the fourth wave ((D)) was completed in Nov 2016.

Prognosis for price movement of FGV:

As wedge price chart patterns always occur in a five wave model (A-B-C-D-E), another up leg primary wave ((E)) is expected to occur in 2017 as the last up leg of bear rally.

(chart courtesy of UOB KayHian Techanalyzer)

Short term view: FGV is currently in the midst of completing leading diagonal as intermediate wave (1) of primary wave ((E)).
After much hugging on the upper trendline of leading diagonal, FGV is expected to test lower levels of support (1.80, 1.72 or even 1.60), before resuming the bear rally.
Simple summary: FGV will retest the upper trendline of larger expanding wedge, however in short term it shall dip lower to confirm the support of lower levels as pin pointed by Fibonacci retracement lines.

Sapura Kencana (5218) how far is 2.00?
Break out or break down!!

(chart courtesy of UOB KayHian Techanalyzer)

Skpetro is currently testing the upper trendline of the downward wedge as shown in figure above.

Successful breakout from this trendline will confirm the end of Cycle wave A and marks the beginning of bear market rally to complete Cycle wave B.

Brief description of the price structure history for Skpetro:
Skpetro initiated an five-wave correction in the Jan 2014, which was completed in Jun 2016 (assuming truncated (3) is correct as shown in diagram above).
Since then Skpetro has failed to attempt a new low in Dec 2016, and was successful to spring up from the Dec 2016 low.


Prognosis for price movement of Skpetro:

Since correction waves always occur in A-B-C fashion, the five-wave decline of skpetro from Jan 2014 suggests the upcoming bear market rally for skpetro should transpire in a three-wave (a-b-c) manner.
A sound breakout of Skpetro from the price level 1.80 will see it soar higher in 2017, and stage a bear market rally as the Cycle wave B.

In the less likely event, if Skpetro breaks down from current level, and
attempt a new low (alternate wave (5) of ((5)) of A), bear market rally (Cycle wave B) will still occur in a later future.
Post-script:
The bear rally trajectory drawn on the figure serve as an illustration of the path. The target price and time of the trajectory should not be taken right away as the prediction of price movement. Exercise caution on your trading decision and don't time your trading solely using the illustrative path of bear rally drawn.